As the tax debate continues, will the market show improvement this fall? By Ken Mahoney
After taking one giant step back on Tuesday followed by three baby steps forward on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, U.S. stocks managed to rise into positive territory for the second straight week. Although September is traditionally the worst performing month of the year for equities, stocks have been on the mend so far as reports on the labor market, manufacturing, and business activity have been better than expected. Recent economic reports are confirming that while the rate of economic recovery has slowed, it's still on a positive trajectory.
The President also agrees with this sentiment as expressed by his words Friday at a nationally televised news conference. "While the economy is growing again...the hole in the recession left was huge and progress has been painfully slow," he said. Over the last week, Obama has rolled out a series of new proposals, including a six-year, $50 billion plan to rehabilitate the nation's transportation infrastructure and provide jobs. He also called for federal income tax rates to return to their pre-Bush levels for the 2-3% of Americans who earn more than $250,000 – a move that will bring in $700 billion to the US treasury, Obama said. Critics argue that while $700 billion is a hefty sum, it is hardly enough to close the fiscal gap, and is likely to do more harm than good as the nation’s highest income earners curtail their spending.
In the week ahead, readings on retail sales, industrial production, jobless claims, and consumer prices should help give direction to the markets. And with November elections fast approaching, politics are also in play. Currently, all three indexes are hovering around what analysts consider to be key levels, and are likely to meet continued resistance until more economic numbers come in positive. At this point, most people accept that the recovery is going to be slower than expected. What they are looking for is further confirmation that it is expanding rather than contracting.
Key things to watch this week:
Monday – Treasury Budget
Tuesday – Retail Sales, Business Inventories
Wednesday – Industrial Production, Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Thursday – Producer Price Index, Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Survey
Friday – Consumer Price Index, Consumer Sentiment
HEADLINES:
The Greek government is planning no new austerity measures as part of efforts to pull the country out of debt and might even exit international supervision earlier than expected, the prime minister said Sunday. George Papandreou said Greece was on track to meet targets for reducing its deficit by nearly 40% this year.
China's major economic indicators picked up in August after slowing for several months, data issued over the weekend show, an unexpected rebound that could help prospects for global growth.
Michael Barr, assistant treasury secretary for financial institutions, and Edward DeMarco, acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency will testify on Capitol Hill next week on the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Barr and DeMarco will appear before the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets on September 15.
Work on the ultimate seal of BP's troubled gulf oil well will begin sooner than expected, officials said Friday. The 'bottom kill' procedure, in which the well is filled with mud and cement, will start this weekend – closing for good the well that spewed 4.9 million barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico.
Donald Trump offered Friday to purchase the site of the proposed mosque near Ground Zero in order to end the national controversy. His bid includes $4.8 million, the amount that businessman Hisham Elzanaty paid for the two-building site, plus a 25% premium. But Elzanaty's lawyer, Wolodymyr Starosolsky, blasted the offer as a publicity stunt and told The Post that his client "found this letter somewhat laughable."
Senin, 13 September 2010
Selasa, 07 September 2010
The markets are at a crossroad, which turn does it take? By Ken Mahoney
The markets are at a crossroad, which turn does it take? By Ken Mahoney
Imagine that you are driving to an important destination when you unexpectedly reach a crossroad. As you consult your map and look to the street signs for direction, you notice there is a conflict. Your map indicates that you should turn left, but the signs indicate that you should turn right. Which is the proper course to take?
In many ways, this scenario illustrates the challenge facing investors today. There are signs pointing in the direction of a deteriorating economy, and there are signs pointing in the direction of a stabilizing and steadily growing economy.
To make matters even more complicated, the signs seem to change every week. Good news – bad news. Bad news – good news. The result is that many people are nervously holding onto their cash. According to Schaeffer's Investment Research, Americans are currently sitting on $9.4 trillion in cash, which is 27% more than in 2007. This, in turn, contributes toward low trading volume and increased volatility in the stock market, which further scares investors away. In a way, it is a self-perpetuating cycle. So what happened last week?
Good news: The Labor department reported that hiring is picking up. Businesses added 67,000 jobs to their payrolls in August, marking the eighth straight month of job growth, following nearly two straight years of job losses. Nonfarm payrolls only fell by 54,000 last month, roughly half the decline that had been feared. Unfortunately, the unemployment rate rose from 9.5% to 9.6% because the number of job seekers was still greater than the number of job openings. So while this report shows that things are headed in the right direction, it also shows that the labor market is still soft.
More Good news: The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) manufacturing index hit 56.3 in August, up from July and significantly ahead of expectations. Any reading above 50 is considered a sign of growth, while a drop below 41.2 is associated with a recession in the broader economy. Good news also came out of the housing sector as marked by an unexpected increase in pending sales of used homes.
How did this dose of positive economic news affect the stock market? The Dow kicked off September with its best three days at the start of a month since March 2009, and its best pre Labor Day week since 1990. Echoing how many investors feel, Phil Orlando, an equity strategist at Federated Investors was interviewed by MarketWatch on Friday and quoted as saying, “In the last two weeks or so, things have been starting to firm up, and today's jobs numbers really put an exclamation mark on that. We're feeling a lot more comfortable about our view, than those thinking about a double dip. If you had a bearish bent in the middle of August when you went on vacation, the story seems different today – it seems constructive."
Little economic news is anticipated in the holiday shortened week ahead, and trading volume is expected to remain light as vacationers return home from their travels. Eyes will undoubtedly be fixed on the President Wednesday as he outlines his administration’s plans to spark the economy. Let’s hope the upcoming “street signs” offer clear direction.
HEADLINES:
According to a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Sunday, 81% of the public rated the country's economic conditions as poor, with 18% describing the economy as good. 44% of people questioned described economic conditions as very poor, up seven points from July.
President Obama is scheduled to lay out a new plan for the economy this Wednesday. Administration officials previously told CNN that the president is considering a payroll tax holiday as well as new infrastructure spending, among several proposals his economic team has been weighing.
According to Schaeffer's Investment Research, the Dow is on pace to register 90 days this year with swings of 100 points or more – more than twice as many as in any of the three years leading up to the crash.
Burger King said Thursday that it has agreed to be acquired by investment firm 3G Capital in a deal valued at $4 billion. The New York-based firm will buy the fast food chain for $24 a share. That marks a 46% premium over Burger King's closing price of $16.45 on Tuesday, the day before news reports said the company was up for sale.
The nation's top automakers reported disappointing sales Wednesday, resulting in the worst August for industry wide auto sales in 27 years. According to sales tracker Autodata, U.S. new vehicle sales fell just short of 1 million vehicles, a drop of 21% from a year ago.
Imagine that you are driving to an important destination when you unexpectedly reach a crossroad. As you consult your map and look to the street signs for direction, you notice there is a conflict. Your map indicates that you should turn left, but the signs indicate that you should turn right. Which is the proper course to take?
In many ways, this scenario illustrates the challenge facing investors today. There are signs pointing in the direction of a deteriorating economy, and there are signs pointing in the direction of a stabilizing and steadily growing economy.
To make matters even more complicated, the signs seem to change every week. Good news – bad news. Bad news – good news. The result is that many people are nervously holding onto their cash. According to Schaeffer's Investment Research, Americans are currently sitting on $9.4 trillion in cash, which is 27% more than in 2007. This, in turn, contributes toward low trading volume and increased volatility in the stock market, which further scares investors away. In a way, it is a self-perpetuating cycle. So what happened last week?
Good news: The Labor department reported that hiring is picking up. Businesses added 67,000 jobs to their payrolls in August, marking the eighth straight month of job growth, following nearly two straight years of job losses. Nonfarm payrolls only fell by 54,000 last month, roughly half the decline that had been feared. Unfortunately, the unemployment rate rose from 9.5% to 9.6% because the number of job seekers was still greater than the number of job openings. So while this report shows that things are headed in the right direction, it also shows that the labor market is still soft.
More Good news: The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) manufacturing index hit 56.3 in August, up from July and significantly ahead of expectations. Any reading above 50 is considered a sign of growth, while a drop below 41.2 is associated with a recession in the broader economy. Good news also came out of the housing sector as marked by an unexpected increase in pending sales of used homes.
How did this dose of positive economic news affect the stock market? The Dow kicked off September with its best three days at the start of a month since March 2009, and its best pre Labor Day week since 1990. Echoing how many investors feel, Phil Orlando, an equity strategist at Federated Investors was interviewed by MarketWatch on Friday and quoted as saying, “In the last two weeks or so, things have been starting to firm up, and today's jobs numbers really put an exclamation mark on that. We're feeling a lot more comfortable about our view, than those thinking about a double dip. If you had a bearish bent in the middle of August when you went on vacation, the story seems different today – it seems constructive."
Little economic news is anticipated in the holiday shortened week ahead, and trading volume is expected to remain light as vacationers return home from their travels. Eyes will undoubtedly be fixed on the President Wednesday as he outlines his administration’s plans to spark the economy. Let’s hope the upcoming “street signs” offer clear direction.
HEADLINES:
According to a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Sunday, 81% of the public rated the country's economic conditions as poor, with 18% describing the economy as good. 44% of people questioned described economic conditions as very poor, up seven points from July.
President Obama is scheduled to lay out a new plan for the economy this Wednesday. Administration officials previously told CNN that the president is considering a payroll tax holiday as well as new infrastructure spending, among several proposals his economic team has been weighing.
According to Schaeffer's Investment Research, the Dow is on pace to register 90 days this year with swings of 100 points or more – more than twice as many as in any of the three years leading up to the crash.
Burger King said Thursday that it has agreed to be acquired by investment firm 3G Capital in a deal valued at $4 billion. The New York-based firm will buy the fast food chain for $24 a share. That marks a 46% premium over Burger King's closing price of $16.45 on Tuesday, the day before news reports said the company was up for sale.
The nation's top automakers reported disappointing sales Wednesday, resulting in the worst August for industry wide auto sales in 27 years. According to sales tracker Autodata, U.S. new vehicle sales fell just short of 1 million vehicles, a drop of 21% from a year ago.
Senin, 30 Agustus 2010
Growth is likely to resume in 2011 according to Fed Chair Bernanke By Ken Mahoney
Growth is likely to resume in 2011 according to Fed Chair Bernanke By Ken Mahoney
What is traditionally Wall Street’s quietest month has been about as peaceful as a crowded five-o-clock flight to Las Vegas that’s serving up all-you-can-drink Red Bull.
After closing below 10,000 on Thursday, the Dow dropped as low as 9,936 in early Friday trading before finally rallying 165 points (1.7%) to recapture the psychologically important 10,000 level and finally close at 10,150. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq likewise rose 1.7% for the day.
In spite of Friday’s performance, each of the major indexes finished to the downside for the week – proof that the ongoing tug-of-war between strong corporate balance sheets and troubling economic indicators is still exerting an influence on the markets.
Although the media has a tendency to confuse the two, it is important to remember that the stock market and the economy are separate animals. Just because the economy is performing poorly doesn’t mean the stock market will, and vice versa. That being said, what we are currently seeing is a strong tendency among investors and analysts alike to make investment decisions based largely upon how the economic indicators are reading. In part, this is due to the fact that many people are still licking their wounds from the so called Great Recession of 2007-2009. Investors are nervous, skittish, uncertain, and in some cases even paranoid. What all this negativity creates is a reactionary market environment – one that moves in response to every new shred of economic news.
Case in point: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech on the economic outlook held Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Mr. Bernanke’s remarks – the strongest yet that the Fed is ready to do what is necessary to bolster growth – sent stocks instantly higher. Although Bernanke acknowledged that the recovery is “less vigorous than we expected”, he also reiterated that growth is likely to pick up in 2011.
After outlining four potential options the Fed could deploy to boost the economy, he added, “The issue at this stage is not whether we have the tools to help support economic activity and guard against disinflation. We do. The issue is instead whether, at any given juncture, the benefits of each tool, in terms of additional stimulus, outweigh the associated costs or risks of using each tool.”
The Fed's strategy carries no guarantees. Even keeping short-term interest rates near zero has done little to rejuvenate the economy. The benefits of recent stimulus programs are evaporating, and Congress has failed to agree on any new major economic aid. Put simply, there are no easy options for fixing the economy. In his closing remarks Bernanke stated, "We have come a long way, but there is still some way to travel.” Yes Mr. Bernanke, you are right about that.
HEADLINES:
The U.S. economy sputtered in the second quarter, according to new estimates from the government released Friday, although the slowdown wasn't as bad as many had feared. The nation's gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, was revised sharply lower to an annual growth rate of 1.6% in the three months ending in June. The initial reading had been for a 2.4% growth rate in the period.
Japan Prime Minister Naoto Kan says he is ready to take “bold” action as the yen approaches its all-time high against the dollar. Many traders say new records are inevitable even after this year’s 9.2% gain.
The number of babies born in the United States dropped 2.6% last year, according to a recent study. The news is not surprising, said Andrew Cherlin, a sociology professor at Johns Hopkins University, given the state of the American economy right now.
The Obama administration plans to take two new steps in the next few weeks to help troubled homeowners. The administration will begin a Federal Housing Authority refinancing effort to help borrowers who are struggling to pay their home mortgages, and will start an emergency homeowners’ loan program for unemployed borrowers so they can stay in their homes, said Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
Toyota will recall 1.13 million Corolla and Matrix cars for a flaw that U.S. regulators said may cause stalling "at any speed without warning." The recall affects vehicles from the 2005-2008 model years in the United States and Canada and follows at least three reported accidents linked to the defect.
What is traditionally Wall Street’s quietest month has been about as peaceful as a crowded five-o-clock flight to Las Vegas that’s serving up all-you-can-drink Red Bull.
After closing below 10,000 on Thursday, the Dow dropped as low as 9,936 in early Friday trading before finally rallying 165 points (1.7%) to recapture the psychologically important 10,000 level and finally close at 10,150. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq likewise rose 1.7% for the day.
In spite of Friday’s performance, each of the major indexes finished to the downside for the week – proof that the ongoing tug-of-war between strong corporate balance sheets and troubling economic indicators is still exerting an influence on the markets.
Although the media has a tendency to confuse the two, it is important to remember that the stock market and the economy are separate animals. Just because the economy is performing poorly doesn’t mean the stock market will, and vice versa. That being said, what we are currently seeing is a strong tendency among investors and analysts alike to make investment decisions based largely upon how the economic indicators are reading. In part, this is due to the fact that many people are still licking their wounds from the so called Great Recession of 2007-2009. Investors are nervous, skittish, uncertain, and in some cases even paranoid. What all this negativity creates is a reactionary market environment – one that moves in response to every new shred of economic news.
Case in point: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech on the economic outlook held Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Mr. Bernanke’s remarks – the strongest yet that the Fed is ready to do what is necessary to bolster growth – sent stocks instantly higher. Although Bernanke acknowledged that the recovery is “less vigorous than we expected”, he also reiterated that growth is likely to pick up in 2011.
After outlining four potential options the Fed could deploy to boost the economy, he added, “The issue at this stage is not whether we have the tools to help support economic activity and guard against disinflation. We do. The issue is instead whether, at any given juncture, the benefits of each tool, in terms of additional stimulus, outweigh the associated costs or risks of using each tool.”
The Fed's strategy carries no guarantees. Even keeping short-term interest rates near zero has done little to rejuvenate the economy. The benefits of recent stimulus programs are evaporating, and Congress has failed to agree on any new major economic aid. Put simply, there are no easy options for fixing the economy. In his closing remarks Bernanke stated, "We have come a long way, but there is still some way to travel.” Yes Mr. Bernanke, you are right about that.
HEADLINES:
The U.S. economy sputtered in the second quarter, according to new estimates from the government released Friday, although the slowdown wasn't as bad as many had feared. The nation's gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, was revised sharply lower to an annual growth rate of 1.6% in the three months ending in June. The initial reading had been for a 2.4% growth rate in the period.
Japan Prime Minister Naoto Kan says he is ready to take “bold” action as the yen approaches its all-time high against the dollar. Many traders say new records are inevitable even after this year’s 9.2% gain.
The number of babies born in the United States dropped 2.6% last year, according to a recent study. The news is not surprising, said Andrew Cherlin, a sociology professor at Johns Hopkins University, given the state of the American economy right now.
The Obama administration plans to take two new steps in the next few weeks to help troubled homeowners. The administration will begin a Federal Housing Authority refinancing effort to help borrowers who are struggling to pay their home mortgages, and will start an emergency homeowners’ loan program for unemployed borrowers so they can stay in their homes, said Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
Toyota will recall 1.13 million Corolla and Matrix cars for a flaw that U.S. regulators said may cause stalling "at any speed without warning." The recall affects vehicles from the 2005-2008 model years in the United States and Canada and follows at least three reported accidents linked to the defect.
Senin, 09 Agustus 2010
High unemployment still providing ‘headwinds’ for the economy by Ken Mahoney
High unemployment still providing ‘headwinds’ for the economy by Ken Mahoney
After stocks surged nicely in July, thanks to better-than-expected corporate earnings, investors are being more cautious in August. As the second-quarter earnings reporting period draws to a close, focus is shifting back to disappointing job numbers and weak consumer spending.
Friday’s jobs report brought weaker-than-expected results, with private sector payrolls rising by an estimated 71,000 in July, thus falling short of the 100,000 expected. The national unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.5% as job gains were much too moderate to lower it. According to MarketWatch, economists estimate that it would take sustained job growth at a rate of around 150,000 per month to begin lowering the jobless rate. Responding to the news, the Dow dropped 160 points in morning trading as investors flocked to Treasurys, pushing the yield on the 10-year note to its lowest level in 12 months. Later defying logic, the blue-chip index staged a dramatic comeback in the afternoon, eventually closing with a 1.8% gain for the week.
Also affecting the week’s performance was a decline in consumer credit and an increase in the rate at which Americans are saving. Outstanding consumer credit fell 0.7% in June, while the national savings rate rose to 6.4% from 6.3% in May, the Federal Reserve said in a report released Friday.
Why are spending and jobs numbers so heavily weighted when it comes to evaluating the health of the recovery? Because businesses are generally reluctant to hire more workers until they see evidence that consumers are spending money, and consumers generally won’t spend more money until they have a job and feel comfortable that they are secure in that job. This tug of war between economic indicators is contributing to the “uncertainty” we keep hearing about. What will give way first? In his speech this past week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke predicted that consumers and businesses will increase spending to give the economy a shot in the arm. We hope he’s right.
Key things to watch this week:
Tuesday – Productivity and Costs, FOMC Meeting Announcement
Wednesday –International Trade, Treasury Budget
Thursday – Jobless Claims
Friday – Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, Business Inventories
.
HEADLINES:
The gusher has finally been beaten, and from 400 miles up, government satellites assure that the oil in the Gulf of Mexico is disappearing. But with BP cautiously declaring its "static kill" a success in plugging the once-runaway well, and the Obama administration's claims that crews and nature have taken care of all but a quarter of the estimated 207 million gallons of crude that have poured from the blowout, many Gulf coast residents are afraid the nation will avert its gaze from the cleanup effort.
On Saturday, Cuba's Fidel Castro participated in his first government function since he nearly died in 2006. During his 90-minute appearance before a full session of Cuba's legislature, he hammered away at an apocalyptic forecast of nuclear war and urged President Obama to avert it.
Ford Motor Co. will pay its Executive Chairman William Clay Ford for the first time in five years as the company has swung to profitability for more than a year, according to media reports.
Americans cut credit-card use for a 21st straight month in June as sluggish job growth and a slowing economy turned spenders into savers, putting more pressure on the recovery.
Mark V. Hurd, C.E.O of Hewlett-Packard, has been ousted from his post for fudging his expenses. The board charged that Hurd, 53, failed to disclose his use of company funds. It urged Hurd to resign, but he balked and offered to compensate the company for the disputed funds, said to range from $1,000 to $20,000. The board, however, insisted. Mr. Hurd is leaving with $12,224,693 in severance, according to a company filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK:
“The road to recovery doesn't follow a straight line.” – President Obama, August 6, 2010
After stocks surged nicely in July, thanks to better-than-expected corporate earnings, investors are being more cautious in August. As the second-quarter earnings reporting period draws to a close, focus is shifting back to disappointing job numbers and weak consumer spending.
Friday’s jobs report brought weaker-than-expected results, with private sector payrolls rising by an estimated 71,000 in July, thus falling short of the 100,000 expected. The national unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.5% as job gains were much too moderate to lower it. According to MarketWatch, economists estimate that it would take sustained job growth at a rate of around 150,000 per month to begin lowering the jobless rate. Responding to the news, the Dow dropped 160 points in morning trading as investors flocked to Treasurys, pushing the yield on the 10-year note to its lowest level in 12 months. Later defying logic, the blue-chip index staged a dramatic comeback in the afternoon, eventually closing with a 1.8% gain for the week.
Also affecting the week’s performance was a decline in consumer credit and an increase in the rate at which Americans are saving. Outstanding consumer credit fell 0.7% in June, while the national savings rate rose to 6.4% from 6.3% in May, the Federal Reserve said in a report released Friday.
Why are spending and jobs numbers so heavily weighted when it comes to evaluating the health of the recovery? Because businesses are generally reluctant to hire more workers until they see evidence that consumers are spending money, and consumers generally won’t spend more money until they have a job and feel comfortable that they are secure in that job. This tug of war between economic indicators is contributing to the “uncertainty” we keep hearing about. What will give way first? In his speech this past week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke predicted that consumers and businesses will increase spending to give the economy a shot in the arm. We hope he’s right.
Key things to watch this week:
Tuesday – Productivity and Costs, FOMC Meeting Announcement
Wednesday –International Trade, Treasury Budget
Thursday – Jobless Claims
Friday – Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, Business Inventories
.
HEADLINES:
The gusher has finally been beaten, and from 400 miles up, government satellites assure that the oil in the Gulf of Mexico is disappearing. But with BP cautiously declaring its "static kill" a success in plugging the once-runaway well, and the Obama administration's claims that crews and nature have taken care of all but a quarter of the estimated 207 million gallons of crude that have poured from the blowout, many Gulf coast residents are afraid the nation will avert its gaze from the cleanup effort.
On Saturday, Cuba's Fidel Castro participated in his first government function since he nearly died in 2006. During his 90-minute appearance before a full session of Cuba's legislature, he hammered away at an apocalyptic forecast of nuclear war and urged President Obama to avert it.
Ford Motor Co. will pay its Executive Chairman William Clay Ford for the first time in five years as the company has swung to profitability for more than a year, according to media reports.
Americans cut credit-card use for a 21st straight month in June as sluggish job growth and a slowing economy turned spenders into savers, putting more pressure on the recovery.
Mark V. Hurd, C.E.O of Hewlett-Packard, has been ousted from his post for fudging his expenses. The board charged that Hurd, 53, failed to disclose his use of company funds. It urged Hurd to resign, but he balked and offered to compensate the company for the disputed funds, said to range from $1,000 to $20,000. The board, however, insisted. Mr. Hurd is leaving with $12,224,693 in severance, according to a company filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK:
“The road to recovery doesn't follow a straight line.” – President Obama, August 6, 2010
Senin, 02 Agustus 2010
Can the Bulls continue their momentum after a strong July? by Ken Mahoney
Can the Bulls continue their momentum after a strong July? by Ken Mahoney
July was a good month for stocks, with the Dow gaining 7.1% and both the S&P and the Nasdaq rising 6.9% to post their biggest monthly gains since July 2009. Despite ongoing concerns about the world economy, stocks were bolstered by strong second quarter financial results. Of the roughly 300 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported so far, approximately 75% of them have published earnings that beat analysts’ estimates.
The biggest economic news last week came from GDP numbers released by the Commerce Department on Friday which indicated that gross domestic product – the value of all goods and services produced by the U.S. economy – grew at a 2.4% annual rate in the period. That figure is down from an upwardly revised 3.7% in the first quarter and 5.0% in the final quarter of 2009, indicating that the economy lost momentum in the second quarter. And while businesses increased spending on equipment and software by 22%, overall spending by consumers remained sluggish, rising just 1.6%. Why is this important to note? Because even if businesses are logging strong profits and spending money, the economy can’t grow at a healthy pace without support from the consumers who’s spending accounts for 70% of economic activity. Without a healthy upturn in jobs and consumer spending, many analysts expect the recovery to lag.
Commenting on the jobs situation, Alec Young, an equity strategist at Standard & Poor's said Friday, "Even though earnings and guidance have been better than expected, there's still skepticism in the market because jobs have been missing in action.” He then added, “The market could push higher late next week if the government's July employment report comes in better than expected on Friday.” Investors will doubtless have their eyes on this and other economic reports due in the weeks ahead as they look for signs of where the market is headed.
Key things to watch this week:
Monday – ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending
Tuesday – Motor Vehicle Sales, Personal Income and Outlays, Factory Orders
Wednesday – ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
Thursday – Jobless Claims
Friday – Employment Situation, Consumer Credit
HEADLINES:
Congress is stepping up its scrutiny of the controversial chemical dispersants sprayed on the Gulf of Mexico oil spill to prevent crude from washing ashore and fouling beaches and marshes. Rep. Edward Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat, is demanding that federal officials provide more information about why the chemicals continued to be used almost daily in June and July, after the Environmental Protection Agency told BP PLC to slash their use because of concerns about the effect on marine life.
BlackBerry email, instant-messaging and Web-browsing services will be banned in the United Arab Emirates starting in October, regulators said, citing a dispute with the device's maker about how it handles electronic data.
China’s manufacturing grew at the slowest pace in 17 months in July as the government clamped down on property speculation and investment in energy-intensive and polluting factories.
State and federal regulators shut down five banks Friday, bringing the total number of bank failures for 2010 to 108.
Volatility in the Treasurys market has dropped back to levels reminiscent of the summer of 2007, as the recent soft economic data have lulled market participants into the view that the recovery will be muted. That in turn is cementing the expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep rates at ultralow levels well into next year. As a result, yields have drifted in a tight range. The 10-year yield, which Friday stood at 2.909%, has been trapped in a range of 2.85% to 3.15% since late June.
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Sources:
Marketwatch
The Wall Street Journal Online
Barrons
CNN Money
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703787904575403393553353172.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLETopStories
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-01/blackberry-expansion-at-risk-as-governments-tighten-curbs-on-mobile-e-mail.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/02/business/global/02iht-yuan.html?src=busln
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704020204575401583210049798.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_markets
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July was a good month for stocks, with the Dow gaining 7.1% and both the S&P and the Nasdaq rising 6.9% to post their biggest monthly gains since July 2009. Despite ongoing concerns about the world economy, stocks were bolstered by strong second quarter financial results. Of the roughly 300 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported so far, approximately 75% of them have published earnings that beat analysts’ estimates.
The biggest economic news last week came from GDP numbers released by the Commerce Department on Friday which indicated that gross domestic product – the value of all goods and services produced by the U.S. economy – grew at a 2.4% annual rate in the period. That figure is down from an upwardly revised 3.7% in the first quarter and 5.0% in the final quarter of 2009, indicating that the economy lost momentum in the second quarter. And while businesses increased spending on equipment and software by 22%, overall spending by consumers remained sluggish, rising just 1.6%. Why is this important to note? Because even if businesses are logging strong profits and spending money, the economy can’t grow at a healthy pace without support from the consumers who’s spending accounts for 70% of economic activity. Without a healthy upturn in jobs and consumer spending, many analysts expect the recovery to lag.
Commenting on the jobs situation, Alec Young, an equity strategist at Standard & Poor's said Friday, "Even though earnings and guidance have been better than expected, there's still skepticism in the market because jobs have been missing in action.” He then added, “The market could push higher late next week if the government's July employment report comes in better than expected on Friday.” Investors will doubtless have their eyes on this and other economic reports due in the weeks ahead as they look for signs of where the market is headed.
Key things to watch this week:
Monday – ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending
Tuesday – Motor Vehicle Sales, Personal Income and Outlays, Factory Orders
Wednesday – ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
Thursday – Jobless Claims
Friday – Employment Situation, Consumer Credit
HEADLINES:
Congress is stepping up its scrutiny of the controversial chemical dispersants sprayed on the Gulf of Mexico oil spill to prevent crude from washing ashore and fouling beaches and marshes. Rep. Edward Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat, is demanding that federal officials provide more information about why the chemicals continued to be used almost daily in June and July, after the Environmental Protection Agency told BP PLC to slash their use because of concerns about the effect on marine life.
BlackBerry email, instant-messaging and Web-browsing services will be banned in the United Arab Emirates starting in October, regulators said, citing a dispute with the device's maker about how it handles electronic data.
China’s manufacturing grew at the slowest pace in 17 months in July as the government clamped down on property speculation and investment in energy-intensive and polluting factories.
State and federal regulators shut down five banks Friday, bringing the total number of bank failures for 2010 to 108.
Volatility in the Treasurys market has dropped back to levels reminiscent of the summer of 2007, as the recent soft economic data have lulled market participants into the view that the recovery will be muted. That in turn is cementing the expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep rates at ultralow levels well into next year. As a result, yields have drifted in a tight range. The 10-year yield, which Friday stood at 2.909%, has been trapped in a range of 2.85% to 3.15% since late June.
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Sources:
Marketwatch
The Wall Street Journal Online
Barrons
CNN Money
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703787904575403393553353172.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLETopStories
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-01/blackberry-expansion-at-risk-as-governments-tighten-curbs-on-mobile-e-mail.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/02/business/global/02iht-yuan.html?src=busln
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704020204575401583210049798.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_markets
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